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KMID : 0939920130450010015
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대한암학회지
2013 Volume.45 No. 1 p.15 ~ p.21
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Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2013
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Jung Kyu-Won
Won Young-Joo
Kong Hyun-Joo
Oh Chang-Mo
Seo Hong-Gwan
Lee Jin-Soo
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Abstract
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Purpose: To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality rates were projected for the year 2013.
Materials and Methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2010 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2011 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2013 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was used, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
Results: In total, 247,732 new cancer cases and 74,179 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2013. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 489.8 and 492.2, and the age-standardized incidences to be 350.4 and 318.4 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively.
Conclusion: Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as the Korean population ages, the cancer burden will continue to increase.
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KEYWORD
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Incidence, Mortality, Neoplasms, Forecasting, Korea, 2013
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